Let’s look at how widely the 10 features have been implemented now, and also how many respondents are planning to implement them soon…
If we then plug that into the Technology Adoption Lifecycle (see this blog post for more info), then we can see which group the feature is currently with.
If we then make an assumption that everyone who said that they were planning to implement the feature soon actually does so, and also does it before the end of 2007, then we can attempt to predict which group the feature will be with by the end of the year…
Remember, anything in green (i.e. over 16%) is said by Moore to have “crossed the chasm” and has the potential to become widely adopted.
In a future post, I’m going to try and look at how innovation and adoption is actually driven. My hunch is that it’s a small number of libraries who do the actual innovation (i.e. they are the risk takers and pioneers) and it’s the system vendors who then pick up the technology in the early adoption phase and help push it across the “chasm” into widespread adoption.